Concept

Independent discovery — where it appears

Arriving at the same result without knowing of the earlier one. It is common in this subject, partly because the same small solution space keeps being searched by people who cannot see each other's work.

Named by 8 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

the alternating-angle conditionHusimi, 1979Kawasaki, 198910 yrmountains minus valleys is twoHusimi and Maekawa, 1979Justin, 19867 yrthe big-little-big lemmaJustin, 1986the lemma, 19948 yrone fold solves a cubicBeloch, 1936Huzita, 199155 yrthe diamond buckling patternYoshimura, 1951Yoshimura, 196918 yrthe bi-directional foldMiura, 1970Miura-ori, 199525 yr1940196019802000mean lag 21 years · longest 55proof

The name is not the date

Kawasaki's theorem is in Husimi's book ten years before Kawasaki's paper. Maekawa's is Justin's too. The mean gap between a result in this field and the name it is known by is twenty-two years, and it runs in one direction.

history · Attribution
what the shell produced14 interior vertices, all alike17 mountain, 40 valley57 creases carrying a letterand it folds flatchecked, not asserted11.0 sheet-widths of crease, chosen by a buckling loadmountainvalleyraw edge

Found before it was designed

Crush a thin cylinder and it falls into a diamond lattice. That pattern was published in aeronautics in 1951, twenty years before anybody designed with it — and what the buckling load chose was not only the creases but the mountain-and-valley assignment, which is the part a designer gets wrong.

history · Rediscovery
degree-4 vertex, 60/90/120/90°4 of 164 creases · 25.0% surviveone degree-6 vertex8 of 646 creases · 12.5% survivethe preliminary base112 of 2568 creases · 43.8% surviveand these are only the local tests — a pattern can pass every vertexand still collide once the layers stack, which is the hard part

The same vertex, found four times

A degree-four vertex with a three-to-one assignment turns up in a buckled cylinder, in a Miura fold, in a Resch tessellation and in a crumpled sheet. It is not a coincidence and it is not influence: the flat-folding conditions are restrictive enough that a small set of vertices is nearly all there is.

history · Rediscovery
the bar is what the whole job costs if every attempt is stopped thereon the rhombille patch, read off 120 measured runsstop at 10051219% of runs finish by thenstop at 20053033% of runs finish by thenstop at 500105435% of runs finish by thenstop at 1000162442% of runs finish by thenstop at 2000263847% of runs finish by thenstop at 5000569749% of runs finish by thenstop at 100001060450% of runs finish by thenstop at 200001629160% of runs finish by thena run that never finished counts as above every cutoff, so the tail is read conservatively

The tail was named somewhere else

The search for a mountain-valley labelling of a tessellation patch costs eighty-four steps at best and does not finish at all two runs in five, and the cure is to stop and start again rather than to wait. None of that was discovered here. The distribution was described in the study of satisfiability solvers in the nineteen-nineties, the restart arithmetic is older still, and what a crease pattern contributes is one more instance.

history · Rediscovery
3 creases on a Möbius bandthe panels take two coloursseamthe same seam123the right edge onto the left, turned over3 creases, 3 panelsinterior vertices: 0two-coloursthe reflections closeand turn the paper the right waymountainvalleyraw edge

Found by people not folding paper

The shortest strip that makes a Möbius band has a literature, and it is in differential geometry rather than in origami. The two subjects have the same number, they reached it by completely different routes, and neither of them cites the other — which is the fourth time this collection has found that shape.

history · Rediscovery
how many witnesses each claim has5 of 15 have one, and a loss removes them from the record rather than weakening themclaimsurviving sourcesafter one lossPaper is made in China21 leftPaper reaches Japan1nothing attests itPaper is made in Europe32 leftFolded paper is used ceremonially in Japan43 leftPaper is folded for amusement in Japan1nothing attests itThe thousand cranes1nothing attests itThe pajarita is folded in Spain21 leftPaper folding is taught as geometry43 leftOne fold solves a cubic1nothing attests itThe diamond pattern in a crushed cylinder21 leftThe conditions at a flat-foldable vertex32 leftThe dashed-and-dotted diagram notation21 leftThe Miura fold32 leftA five-pointed star from one straight cut1nothing attests itAny straight-line drawing, from one straight cut21 leftby kind of source: artefact 2 · manuscript 2 (1 single) · printed 9 (3 single) · secondary 2 (1 single)the average overrun falls from 357 years to 193 without them, and the median from 201.5 to 184.5 — the effect is two rows, not a tendencywitnesses counted from the record itself · Paper is folded for amusement in Japan and The thousand cranes are the two largest overruns and have one document each

One lost source and the story changes

Five of the record's fifteen claims rest on exactly one surviving document. Take those away and the field's most-quoted statistic — how far ahead of its evidence a popular date runs — falls from three hundred and fifty-seven years to a hundred and ninety-three, while the median hardly moves at all. The effect is not a tendency spread through the record; it is two documents, and both of them are single-witness.

history · Two traditions
200400600800100002004006008001000120014001600mean years ahead of the evidenceresamplingsquoted: 3575%: 15095%: 591spread 13320,000 resamplings of the fifteen entries · five per cent of them fall below 150 and five per cent above 591

The interval is wider than the number

The field's most-quoted statistic — how far ahead of its evidence a popular date runs — is the mean of eight positive gaps, and it is quoted as three hundred and fifty-seven years. Resampling the fifteen entries puts ninety per cent of its weight between a hundred and fifty and five hundred and ninety-one. The interval is wider than the number, the middle gap's interval is a fifth as wide, and the difference is the same two documents the leave-one-out found.

history · Two traditions
what one document would dono date is invented here — each row asks what the arithmetic would say if one turned upclaimdatedevidenceits gapif a source 200 years earlier turned upceremonial-wrapping12001600400357 → 332 (-25)recreational-folding7001680980357 → 332 (-25)senbazuru9001797897357 → 332 (-25)pajarita15001793293357 → 332 (-25)paper-china1051050nothing changespaper-europe11501056-94nothing changesbeloch19911936-55nothing changesyoshimura19691951-18nothing changesvertex-conditions19891979-10nothing changesyoshizawa-notation19611954-7nothing changesmiura-ori19951970-25nothing changespaper-japan610720110357 → 392 (+35)one-cut-star1776187397357 → 394 (+37)fold-and-cut1922199876357 → 397 (+40)froebel183718381357 → 408 (+51)the statistic is 357 as the record stands; a positive number in the last column is a discovery that makes the field look worse

Some discoveries would make it worse

The field's headline statistic averages the claims dated ahead of their evidence. So a document found for a claim that was nearly right removes a small number from a mean of large ones and the average overrun goes up: finding a source two centuries earlier for the kindergarten entry would take the figure from 357 to 408. The four claims where a discovery helps can take twenty-five years off each, and no single document at any date can bring the number to 250.

history · Two traditions

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Documentary recordAttestationAttributionMaekawa's theoremPrimary sourceExpected-valueFound patternsIdentifiabilityKawasaki's theoremRediscoveryAssignmentBuckling

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